Experts Warn of Prolonged and Severe El Niño, Increasing Pressure on Food Prices in the Philippines
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Experts from the United States are warning of a high probability of prolonged and severe effects of the El Niño dry spell in the Philippines, leading to increased pressure on food prices.
The American agency Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported a 90-percent chance of the El Niño persisting throughout the year and early 2024, with a possibility of it becoming a historically strong event comparable to the severe El Niño occurrences in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
A strong El Niño is characterized by sea temperature readings at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
The CPC forecasts the El Niño to grow stronger during the fall and reach its peak intensity during winter, with an 81-percent likelihood of above-average temperatures by at least 1 degree Celsius from November to January.
According to BMI, a subsidiary of the Fitch Group, international rice prices have been easing but remain high, and they may rise again later this year or early next year as the peak of the El Niño approaches.
BMI also highlighted that based on previous severe El Niño events since the 1990s, rice production in the Philippines has been severely impacted compared to other Asian countries.
Severe El Niño events occurred in the years 1991-1992, 2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2009-2010, and 2015-2016, with the latter being one of the most severe on record.
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